India's achievement as a tiger economy is reflected in the booming fortunes of about 150 million citizens. The harsher existence of the remaining 80%-90% of the population would by contrast find closer parallels in the countries of sub-Saharan Africa.
Woman carrying water, Rajasthan ©CARE India |
Further analysis of the profile of poverty is far from straightforward. The 1990 baseline poverty rate for the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) was 37.5% and the Indian government is confident of achieving the target of halving this figure by 2015. Current official statistics assert that the rate has fallen to 28.3%.
Based on a National Sample Survey conducted as long ago as 2004/05, this poverty rate - and any figures extrapolated from it - increasingly lacks credibility. A new Survey has been conducted but results will not be published until 2011.
The intervening years have seen India’s poor buffeted by contrary forces. Although the national economy has proved resilient against the global recession, instability of food production and availability has been a consistent threat. Food price inflation of 10%-20% during most of 2009 and 2010 is known to be causing hardship.
Strong macro-economic growth has however enabled the government to introduce and expand safety net schemes for the poorest families. Instigated in 2005, the National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (NREGA) guarantees 100 days of paid employment to one person from every household to work on public infrastructure projects. Initially confined to selected states, NREGA has been extended throughout rural India, reaching over 50 million households in 2009/10.
Only the eventual survey results can demonstrate whether these economic tools of redistribution have penetrated the underlying causes of poverty in India. The contours of inequality that define the Hindu caste system have survived generations of measures aimed at their elimination. And discrimination continues to impede prospects of 85 million tribal adivasis living in regions associated with the Naxalite insurgency.
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